Planning is a guess

Planning is an educated guess, an informed hypothesis. When an outcome differs something went wrong in the design of our thoughts or the formation of things as they were supposed to happen. We need to be adaptable. Able to move swiftly and reorganize using the new situation, game pieces, or objects. The best ideas were formed over time. Each one proofed by trial and error. Theory becomes law once proven or debugged.

Simply put: PDCA.

God Bless,

Joe

The Chiefs Player - Send a Prayer

I see the topic trending on Twitter and popping up on Facebook. I see the news buzzing about the incident  Why do we, as a society, flock to this type of news? The news is usually shared, and some statements of "how sad," or "that is awful." Not much other substance is offered, in many cases.

Is this our instinct to be like the Roman's were or do we have a genuine undescribable sorrow for those in shock from the incident suffering from the human conditions? I pray that we are more in awe that someone would feel so weak in Christ and that our heavenly Father would share his Grace. I pray that our Lord will give us more faith, become the foot prints in the sand, and we would have opportunities to witness to ones in trying times.

God Bless, Joe

The JACKPOT LOTTERY WINNER announced!

We run to the store to purchase a lottery when the gamble is worth it to us. Some people purchase tickets every week without question. The odds to win: staggeringly slim. However the winner has been identified for the lottery: the government.  Either by the event itself, or the taxes afterward y ou can be sure that Uncle Sam will claim his inheritance.

"Lotteries have the highest profit rates in gambling in the U.S.: in 1996, net revenues (sales minus payouts, but not including costs) totaled $16.2 billion, or almost 38% of sales. They are also the largest source government revenue from gambling, in 1996 netting $13.8 billion, or 32% of money wagered, for governments at all levels." (1)

"As with wage income, some amount of lottery winnings is withheld for the government before you calculate your total tax bill when filing your income tax the following year." (2)

Quitting Oil and Starting Alternative Fuels staggering

Most of us do not have fuel efficient cars, as compared to a Prius or other enhanced or alternative fuel machine. There is a reason that Exxon is near the top of the highest revenues list. In fact, according to an article on the Hunnigton Post, Exxon exceeds in net profits.

I believe that the industries know that the end is near, which explains the continual spikes. The initial spike was due to good reason (and I am sure there are others as well) but the cleaner energy movement will soon take over. The fuel efficiency will continue to improve until it is no longer needed for automobiles.

Normally, I would propose that there is something called a pricing equilibrium.as supply goes down demand goes up, thus the price inclines. Same happens for the lack thereof. I believe that in the "big picture" the oil companies are reversing the concepts to maximize profits (based on the "shortages" the media proclaims. Which, I also wonder if is not a tale from the companies themselves. Statistics and data can be reviewed with different interpretations; all a perspective.) In the reversal the false sense of scarcity spurred be demand that our culture refuses or cannot give up has driven a price which we have to pay.

Even if, we wanted to, the average person and family will struggle to buy a new vehicle. Many of the alternative or fuel efficient vehicles are costly and out of the range of the middle class. Even though the long term savings may be advantageous - we would rather or are more able to pay a little more now than a lot now for savings later.

(http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/02/27/how-high-have-gas-prices-risen-over-the-years/)

Plastic and Modeled (Repost)

* I thought this was a good topic as the holiday sales continue to lure us in. *

On a recent business trip I stayed at a very fancy hotel. Of course it was not like the MGM or anything comparable in Vegas – but for my meek salary any tiny spot of positional latitude, it was nice. Now that I have stated how far down on the totem I am, I must admit the trip was paid for by the company. That which is not already paid for will be when I submit the receipts.

Now as I prop my feet up and listen to “Bama Breeze,” by Jimmy Buffet I am pondering over the day – thoughts – and events. The song really has nothing to do with the story here – other than its significance to simplicity.

What started this train wreck of my imagination and slight frustration? Well, upon check in to the hotel, I was asked for my name and photo ID. I handed over the requested materials. The gentleman asked me for confirmation of my stay and I nodded in affirmation. The next statement was the stray bullet. “Can I have your credit card?”

The hotel has been pre-paid by the company for which I work so I just asked him to look at the file and see that all is in good order. However, he still persisted that a credit card was due. I let the man know that I do not have one (as nice as I could without making it obvious that I was a little embarrassed/irritated). His next comment sealed the deal.”So you are not going to take any refreshments out of the room?” My reply was “No.”

“Well Sir, I will send someone to your room to take all the refreshments out of the room.” He commented back.

My rebuttal, “Would you like me to go now and open the door for them?” (I have something more on this later...)

This event was not the end of my day but consider the impact of the situation. We live in a society that demands we are culturally sound with amenities for every situation. I must admit that if my own personal finance was in order I would have a small credit card. However, I do not have a credit card or even a cellular phone. Thinking about this event I began to illuminate all the advertisements that I have seen recently. Many of them require a credit card for the discount, or a cellular phone so that you can be “texted” a code. Heck, even the Salvation Army (in many bigger cities) has credit card swiping capability. 

I wonder what happened. It is almost like we are reverting to the beginning of the credit card, or “Diner’s Card.” It makes you exclusive. The very fact that the Salvation Army has the ability to accept credit cards is an oxymoron. Understand that the purpose is to collect more money – that many people do not carry cash today. So, to keep up to the culture they have adapted. Basic business is to adapt with the culture, however, I struggle with the other side of the coin. There will be some people who give when they cannot afford it, creating more debt for themselves, or sharing their debt.  I am sure that it is the middle man being cut out. The rich get richer and the poor live rich getting more into debt with the middle man taking sides with the previous.

In a world where bigger is better and faster is more – I wonder what wall we will slam up against to realize that “hey – it is ok to just be average.” Materialism is an addiction that we must come to terms with. The prices continue to rise and the customers will continue to justify the needs.  Basic Business: Supply and Demand. The price will continue to rise to find the equilibrium or ideal quantity for the store to have on hand that the customers will buy. Then, in many cases, the stores will offer a sale when their inventories are high to turn product. Guess what – it’s a deal only to move product. The price between sale and retail is the extra profit the store makes. Most of the items at full retail have a nice sticker on them. The splendid word that feeds the addiction is “New!” Now how is all of this rant tied in to the above?

We are expected to have money available at all times based on society. If you do not have the funds available now, then simply charge it – this will help us be culturally savvy. But, before I finish my little topic - I wanted to share a small tidbit of information. In the event that you do fall behind in your credit cards and you need to settle to get out of the compound interest rates you do have options. Before you go to bankruptcy there are options. You do have options to negotiate. I have successfully cut credit card bills up to 50% off of the collected rate. According to CreditCard.com, the profits are very large. Which means they have room to cut fees - and still make a profit. That is the beauty of compound interest.

Profitability 

Profits or Losses at Top 10 U.S. Credit Card Issuers in 2008
1. Chase: $780 million profit
2. Bank of America: $520 million profit
3. Citi: $530 million loss
4. American Express: $850 million profit
5. Capital One: $1.00 billion profit
6. Discover: $710 million profit
7. Wells Fargo: $990 million profit
8. HSBC: $520 million profit
9. US Bank: $1.07 billion profit
10. USAA: Not listed

Ok - I have grossly got off topic but wanted to throw several ideas at you about this subject. The point is, we should avoid a cultural view of ourselves when looking at material items. It is ok - to not be what is expected by the worldly view or status quo. And just to cap off the blog - remember when I mentioned "more of this later" about the hotel stay. They never did remove the refreshments. He was "calling my bluff." 

Images of credit card trap as viewed: http://www.fairloanrate.com

Don't feed the bears

It is a simple concept really. We have all heard someone talk about it, a cartoon poke fun at it, or have viewed a park sign exclaiming it. "DON'T FEED THE BEARS!" They are not cute and cuddly as Teddy has been depicted for years. They are actually creatures that are predators nearing the top of their food chain which kill, even people, when threatened or encountered in the wrong setting(s). The truth about feeding bears is that you are simply saying,"Hey, come here for food." The animals will repeat with reward. Pavlov had an entire scientific breakthrough with this.

So Joe, how do bears have anything to do with ME? Everything. We are creatures that take the least path of resistance. We will take the solution where we have to exert minimal effort for maximum reward if left to our sole unintelligible desires. We will call the person who gives us the answers. When is the last time you borrowed money from the same person... and then again... and so on. Going deeper: did you have something that was not "good" or "legal" but was satisfying and available?

Or perhaps the XYZ Store at the mall has a sale every week and they give you rewards when you visit them good for the following week. They do not even have to do that. The retailers have also been paying attention. Each week - like clockwork - they have a new ad. New specials. Come to the campground. But what happens when suddenly the food stops. The sale has loop holes. The money is not there. The "good" thing is not available. We change - often for the worse. (If you have ever worked in retail, you get it.) The things being offered are not there, yet we arrived. WE ARRIVED - now where is it? Give it to me! I paid for blank blank blank and expect blah blah blah.

We are all bears. Please stop feeding us.

I have another article along the same topic involving silent leadership which is very similar but deals with lack of action vs. rewards.

Young Bird Dogs

There will be many things that come your way in life that sound great. So great, in fact, that you want to jump on the idea. The next step is the defining moment. A bird dog in his or her career (well it is) faces this same thing every hunt but the defining moments are based on the age, training and overall experience of the dog. The younger bird dog will go after the first set of birds and then if another set were to raise jump at those losing some control in the situation. Everything is an opportunity worth hunting! The older bird dog takes a group and patently stalks until the right opportunity. The veteran is not distracted until the right moment - regardless of other set backs along the way, such as a neighboring group stir...

We too, do this. Sometimes the most amazing offers will come your way. It is OK to pass if it does not feel right. It will not be the only thing amazing to every happen to you again. The house that seems perfect but a little out of your range, is just that - out of your range. Whatever your situation, remember the "new" will fade. Once that does - would it still be the right decision?